A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
