Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
